Mikkel Plagborg-Moller
University of Chicago, IL·Social Science·Early-career
Economy-wide events do not hit everyone the same way. A recession, an interest rate change, or an oil price shock can hurt renters and help homeowners, or affect small firms differently from large ones.
- Fields
Social Science
Mathematics & Statistics
- Topics
econometrics
impulse response functions
heterogeneity
- Grants
- 1 known grant, through Feb 2028
What they work on
- Develop an inference procedure with formal coverage guarantees for visualizing multi-dimensional cross-sectional heterogeneity, such as differences in dynamic response profiles across groups of households or firms.
- Provide a causal reinterpretation of popular methods for estimating temporal heterogeneity and nonlinearity in time series, including state-dependent and sign-dependent impulse responses.
- Run a large-scale simulation study comparing available impulse response estimators and translate the results into quantitative recommendations for choosing among competing procedures.
- Create a collection of interactive educational materials, including video content, teaching modern macroeconometric methods to students and policy practitioners.
More about the research
Detailed data on individual households and firms, together with cheap computing, have made it possible to study these differences, and concerns about whether growth benefits everyone have made it urgent. The statistical tools in routine use at universities, central banks, and policy institutions were not designed for this question: they are built to describe average responses, and they offer little guidance on how to report, or how much to trust, differences across groups and across time. This project develops econometric methods to fill that gap.
Why it matters
Central banks and other policy institutions rely on time series methods to judge how their decisions ripple through the economy, but currently lack reliable ways to quantify who is affected and by how much. Tools with valid uncertainty measures for group-level and state-dependent responses, plus evidence-based guidance on which estimator to use, could make distributional claims in policy analysis more trustworthy and make applied macroeconomic research easier to replicate.
Known grants
From NIH and NSF research grants. Labs often have other funding we can't see.
Closest labs
Rosen Valchev
Boston College, MA·Social Science
Develop the theory of a learning framework in which decision makers choose how much costly reasoning to do and update beliefs from experienced outcomes, and analyze its short-run and long-run properties.
Alyssa Carlson
University of Missouri-Columbia, MO·Social Science·Early-career
Establish identification in triangular random coefficient models with continuous endogenous variables using a general control function that does not require scalar heterogeneity, the assumption of a single hidden first-stage factor.
Robert Johnson
University of Notre Dame, IN·Social Science
Model how occasionally binding capacity limits in supply chains shift domestic and import price Phillips Curves and fuel inflation, using a multisector open-economy New Keynesian model.
The school
University of Chicago: 39 labs on PI Pages, $681M a year on research, 457 research doctorates a year.
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